Waste will kill ipv6 too

[morrowc.lists at gmail.com (Christopher Morrow)]

On Wed, Dec 20, 2017 at 2:16 PM, Lee Howard <lee at asgard.org> wrote:

>
> Iâ??ve tried several times to come up with a scenario that leads to
> depletion in less than 200 years, and I havenâ??t managed it. Can you do it?
>

during some ARIN discussions that revolved around Transition Technologies
and allocations to large ISPs, there were more than a few folk batting
around the idea that they may need to allocate a /24 or a /20 even to a
single provider.

I believe DT has a /19 assigned to them currently? how many /19's are there
in the v6 space? (524288-ish)
That's only ~100x the current number of active ASN in the field. It's
unclear (to me) how many of those could/would justify a /19 equivalent, and
how fast the ASN field is growing over time.

200 years seems optomistic, 20 years seems easy to imagine surpassing
though. What's the sweet spot?