Using Prediction Markets to Enhance US Intelligence

[juan.g71 at gmail.com (juan)]

On Sat, 28 Oct 2017 15:05:19 -0400
Steve Kinney <admin at pilobilus.net> wrote:

> 
> 
> On 10/28/2017 02:35 PM, juan wrote:
> > 
> > 
> > https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/csi-studies/studies/vol50no4/using-prediction-markets-to-enhance-us-intelligence-capabilities.html
> > 
> > 'intelligence' in scare quotes of course 
> > 
> > anyway, I thought it was funny that cia webpages use JavaScript
> > Intellectual Property from Facebook...
> 
> Heh.  That sounds a lot like John Poindexter's "Terrorism Futures
> Market" where the omnescient, infallable hand of the Free Market would
> predict terrorist attacks in plenty of time to prevent them.  I may
> have been the first to point out that this scheme was a variation on
> Assassination Politics, and that participants would bet on and then DO
> terrorist attacks.
> 
> Poindexter was removed from his position running DARPA over that, and
> some of what I wrote in my critique of the plan was still being quoted
> verbatim by 'mainstream pundits' a week later.
> 
> :o)
> 

	Here's some more info on the genral topic...

	Historical Election Betting Markets
	http://www.unc.edu/~cigar/papers/PoP_submit4.pdf

	"Wagering was generally legal under British common law, so long
	as it did not to lead to immortality or impolity. Bets about
	the outcome of events in war, over the death of political
	leaders, over court cases, or between voters over election
	results were illegal on these grounds. 15" 

	betting over the death of political leaders? lol...